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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.