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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still