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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd