Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
